A Crisis Of Confidence: Weighing Employment Uncertainty Among The Postgraduates In The Indian Context

Abstract

Postgraduate unemployment and underemployment have emerged as critical issues in India, reflecting a deep disconnect between higher education and labor market outcomes. This study investigates the prevalence and predictors of employment uncertainty among postgraduate students using a data-driven, multi-method approach. Drawing on primary survey data from 325 students in Ranchi district, Jharkhand, the research employs Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) to validate key constructs, Logistic Regression and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) to predict employment uncertainty, and Cluster Analysis to identify distinct risk profiles. Findings reveal that employment uncertainty is alarmingly high, with a majority of students falling within the 0.85–0.95 probability range on the uncertainty scale. Poor employability skills, job search difficulties, low confidence in government policies, and socio-economic constraints emerged as major contributors. Conversely, higher CGPA, job offers, and institutional reputation reduced uncertainty. Cluster analysis further segmented students into 11 behavioral profiles, highlighting diverse psychological and demographic patterns influencing employment outlooks. This study bridges a significant research gap by integrating statistical modeling with psycho-social dimensions of employability. The results have critical implications for educational institutions, policymakers, and career support systems. It calls for curriculum reform, targeted career counseling, and policy interventions that rebuild trust and align educational outcomes with labor market demands. By providing a predictive and segmented view of employment uncertainty, this research offers a scalable framework for addressing the employment challenges of India’s highly educated youth.