An Analysis of State-Level GST Revenues in India

Abstract

This paper examines state-wise Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue collection patterns during FY 2020-2024 utilizing monthly secondary data from the Government of India's official GST Network (GSTN) database and Ministry of Finance publications. The Goods and Services Tax, implemented in July 2017, fundamentally restructured India's fiscal federalism by creating a unified tax base with revenues shared between central government (CGST: 9%) and state governments (SGST: 9%), plus integrated GST (IGST: 5%) distributed on origin basis. This analysis documents 48-month temporal dynamics of state-wise GST collections, identifies regional concentration patterns, analyzes pandemic disruption impacts (April-June 2020), and examines recovery trajectories (July 2020-March 2024). Analysis employs descriptive statistics, trend decomposition, year-on-year growth rates, correlation matrices, and CAGR calculations across 28 states and 8 Union Territories. Key findings reveal: (1) acute revenue concentration with six states (Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Karnataka, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh) accounting for 48.2% of all-India GST in FY 2023-24; (2) differentiated pandemic impacts with V-shaped recovery in manufacturing-intensive states (Tamil Nadu: -18% → +22.1% CAGR) versus L-shaped stagnation in resource-dependent states (Bihar, Chhattisgarh); (3) very strong correlation between state GSDP and GST collections (r=0.87, p<0.01), indicating economic development as primary tax base determinant; (4) persistent horizontal fiscal disparities with SGST generating ₹2,425 Cr/month (Maharashtra) versus ₹260 Cr/month (Bihar); (5) sectoral specialization effects with manufacturing and service-intensive states demonstrating 15-20% higher GST-to-GSDP ratios than agriculture-dependent states. The paper contributes evidence-based insights for fiscal federalism reform, state capacity building, and equitable revenue distribution mechanisms in post-GST India.